Philosophy

What markets get wrong

Markets overweight whatever just happened. They take the current narrative and extrapolate it years into the future, and the gap between short-term perception and long-term reality is where I invest. When optimism or pessimism moves materially beyond the evidence, the market is pricing the next quarter. I'm pricing what the business looks like several years out. That mismatch is the whole game.

The edge

I don't buy things because they're going up, and I don't buy things just because they're going down. The edge is finding material asymmetry between what market participants believe and what the economic reality supports — entering contrarian when sentiment has overshot, holding patiently while the market corrects the mispricing, and letting favorable momentum run until valuation, sentiment or positioning overshoots in the other direction.

Three setups interest me most:

• Fallen champions — dominant, fundamentally high-quality companies whose price and reputation collapsed on temporary problems: operational stumbles, litigation, industry downturns, macro shocks.
• Narrative dislocations — one story becomes gospel and gets extrapolated too far. "This industry is dying." "This leader is finished."
• Macro dislocations — countries, sectors, commodities or assets mispriced by inflation, rates, currencies, geopolitics, liquidity or the cycle.

Mining and construction in early 2016. Apple in 2016. Meta in 2018. Deutsche Bank. Bayer. The KOSPI and Korean semiconductor names in 2025. Gold as a macro position. That's the pattern.

Why this isn't luck

I've run this approach with real money since January 1, 2016 — ten and a half years, through multiple regimes and crises — and it has outperformed the MSCI World. The record is broker-timestamped and fully reconstructed: benchmark-relative measurement, attribution, drawdown analysis, and evidence the returns came from many decisions, not one lucky winner. The exact measurement rules are on the Methodology page — nothing about how the number is calculated is left vague.

What I reject

Benchmark hugging. Permanent full deployment of capital. Opaque decision-making. Layers of intermediation and fees disconnected from value. Buying assets because they're already rising. When no compelling asymmetry exists, cash and short-term government securities are legitimate positions — holding liquidity preserves optionality and is not failure. I'll hold anywhere from 0% to 100% cash, and when riskless yield pays 3–4%, cash can be the best position on the board.

Skin in the game

One hundred percent of my liquid public-market portfolio follows the Almanac strategy. Every call is published to all members first; I trade only after a 15-minute blackout, then disclose my actual execution time and price. No member, friend, family member or related account gets early access — one rule, no exceptions, and any breach is disclosed within 24 hours. The full record — wins, losses, canceled calls, mistakes — stays permanently visible. Nothing is rewritten after the outcome is known.

Who this is for

Members keep custody and control of their own money in their own brokerage accounts. Almanac publishes the model portfolio, target weights, trade notices, research and performance; you decide whether and how to act. This is professional-grade investment intelligence without surrendering control.

It is NOT for short-term traders, anyone who needs constant action or permanent full investment, anyone who can't tolerate real volatility or 12–24 months of underperformance, anyone who needs this capital soon, or anyone expecting guarantees or personalized management. Some positions last three to six months. Others take years. A three-year horizon is the minimum.